Revista de Gestão Costeira Integrada
Volume 14, Número 4, Dezembro 2014, Páginas 553-568

DOI: 10.5894/rgci472
* Submission: 31 December 2013; Evaluation: 11 February 2014; Reception of revised manuscript: 10 May 2014; Accepted: 28 May 2014; Available on-line: 20 June 2014

Adjusting to current climate threats and building alternative future scenarios for the Rio de la Plata coast and estuarine front, Uruguay *

Gustavo J. Nagy ^{@, a, b}, Nathalie Muñoz ^{a, b}, José E. Verocai ^{a, c},
Mario Bidegain ^{a, d}, Leonardo Seijo ^e

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@ - Corresponding author, to whom correspondence should be addressed.
a - Universidad de la República, Instituto de Ecología y Ciencias Ambientales (IECA), Grupo de Cambio Ambiental y Gestión Costero Marina, Oceanografía y Ecología Marina, Montevideo, Uruguay. e-mails: Nagy:gnagy@fcien.edu.uy, Gustavo.nagy56@gmail.com; Muñoz: nathalieferrero@gmail.com; Verocai: otolito21@gmail.com; Bidegain: bidegain.mario@gmail.com
b - GEF Project “Implementing Pilot Adaptation Measures in Coastal Areas of Uruguay”
c - Armada Nacional, Departamento de Oceanografía, SOHMA, Uruguay
d - Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, División Climatología, Montevideo, Uruguay.
e - Presidencia de la República, Oficina de Planeamiento y Presupuesto, Montevideo, Uruguay, e-mail: Seijo: leoseijo@gmail.com

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ABSTRACT
In this paper we present a climate adjustment and scenario building experience in the coastal areas of Uruguay within the framework of GEF-Project ”Implementing pilot sites adaptation measures in coastal Uruguay”. The Project goals are to increase resilience, promote interactions between relevant institutions and stakeholders, and to incorporate climate threats in the political agenda. Assuming that many readers are more familiar with Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) than with climate adaptation a summary of concepts is presented based on both the international literature and local experience. Emphasis is put on the knowledge of coastal climate-driven threats, the implications of adaptive and risk-based management approaches to current climate, adaptation planning, and future scenarios. Then, a review of our recent publications on the subject is made in order to give a picture of the lessons learned during the Project experience. Here we focus on the Rio de la Plata’s estuarine front “Adaptation Pilot Site” and the interaction between scientists and stakeholders from 2009-2013. Emphasis is put on recent climatic time-series (1997-2012) since during this period most of them reverted as compared to the Project’s climate baselines (1961-2008). This short-term variability is fundamental to cope with current climate threats (adjustment) and introduces additional uncertainties to future scenarios. The continuous interaction with stakeholders and experts allows building alternative futures from the current perspective and climate models. The process itself - planning and implementing actions - creates capacity to move forward. Natural and social scientists continuously inform stakeholders, to promote adjustment, interactive adaptive management, and planning. Thinking of “futures” together with experts and stakeholders can be thought as a “what if” learning exercise and a way to develop alternative scenarios.

Keywords: Adaptation concepts, Climate Drivers, Monitoring, Coastal Areas, South America.

Enfrentando as ameaças climáticas atuais e construindo cenários futuros alternativos para a costa e frente estuarina do Rio de La Plata, Uruguai

RESUMO
Neste artigo apresentamos, no âmbito do Projecto GEF “Implementação de medidas de adaptação em locais pilotos na costa do Uruguai”, medidas de adaptação às alterações climáticas e construção de cenários climáticos baseados na experiência em áreas costeiras do Uruguai. As metas do projecto são aumentar a resiliência, promover as interacções entre instituições e as partes interessadas incorporando as ameaças climáticas na agenda política. Partindo do princípio que muitos leitores estão mais familiarizados com a Gestão Costeira Integrada (GCI) do que com a adaptação climática é apresentado um resumo de conceitos com base na literatura internacional e experiência local. A ênfase é colocada nos impactos e adaptação às alterações climáticas e a redução do risco face às incertezas crescentes causadas pela vulnerabilidade associada aos cenários previstos para as alterações climáticas. Apresenta-se uma revisão das publicações do grupo sobre a temática e no seguimento dos resultados e experiência do Projecto. O trabalho centra-se na frente estuarina do Rio de la Plata “Local piloto de adaptação” e na interacção entre os cientistas e stakeholders entre os anos de 2009 a 2013. O trabalho foca-se na variabilidade climática recente apoiando-se numa série temporal entre 1997 e 2012. A interacção contínua entre as partes interessadas e os especialistas permite construir cenários futuros alternativos a partir das perspectivas actuais e modelos climáticos disponíveis. O processo em si - o planeamento e implementação de acções - cria a necessária capacidade para avançar. A equipa de cientistas (incluindo cientistas sociais) informam continuamente as partes interessadas no sentido de apoiar os ajustamentos necessários, promover uma gestão integrada, participativa e adaptativa. Pensando no “futuro”, enquanto exercício “what if”, peritos e partes interessadas desenvolvem cenários alternativos de adaptação às alterações climáticas e a redução do risco.

Palavras chave: Adaptação, causadores da mudança climática, monitorização, Zonas Costeiras, América do Sul.

 

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