Revista Recursos Hdricos

DOI:10.5894/rh35n1-3
O texto deste artigo foi submetido para reviso e possvel publicao em abril de 2014, tendo sido aceite pela Comisso de Editores Cientficos Associados em maio de 2014. Este artigo parte integrante da Revista Recursos Hdricos, Vol. 35, N 1, 37-52, maio de 2014.

Uma forma alternativa de enfrentar a escassez de dados na bacia do rio Zambeze com vista calibrao de modelos hidrolgicos

An alternative approach to face the scarcity of data in the Zambezi River basin aiming at calibrating hydrological models

J. P. Matos¹, M. M. Portela², D. Juzo³

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1 - Doutor em Engenharia Civil, Instituto Superior Tcnico /// Doutor em Cincias, cole Polytechnique Fdrale de Lausanne /// jose.matos@ist.utl.pt
2 - Doutora em Engenheira Civil, Professora Auxiliar, Instituto Superior Tcnico /// maria.manuela.portela@ist.utl.pt
3 - Doutor em Engenharia Civil, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane /// juizo@uem.mz

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RESUMO
No mbito da estimao de escoamentos escala diria numa extensa bacia hidrogrfica escassamente monitorizada – na bacia hidrogrfica do rio Zambeze, em Moambique, com cerda de 1 400 000 km2 –, sistematizam-se as etapas fundamentais da modelao, compreendendo, para alm do modelo hidrolgico propriamente dito, a aquisio dos dados de base, a caracterizao espacial da precipitao, a calibrao de parmetros e a validao de resultados. So especificados e brevemente discutidos alguns dos modelos aplicveis s diferentes etapas. Tendo em conta a relevncia da fase de calibrao, explorada a possibilidade de recorrer a superfcies de precipitao interpoladas a partir de dados histricos de acordo com a tcnica POM (interpolao por memria orientada por padres, ou, do Ingls, Pattern Oriented Memory) de modo a aumentar o perodo de calibrao sustentando-o em informao compatvel, quer decorrente daquela interpolao, quer, aps 1998, derivada de dados de satlite. No obstante o reconhecimento da necessidade de investigao adicional, o artigo evidencia as potencialidades da adopo de perodos de calibrao alargados possibilitada pela nova tcnica de interpolao espacial POM.

Palavras-chave: Rio Zambeze, escoamento, interpolao da precipitao, POM, modelo hidrolgico, calibrao, validao.

ABSTRACT
The main steps of an approach towards the evaluation of flows at a daily time scale in a large ungauged watershed – the Zambezi River basin, in Mozambique, with approx. 1 400 000 km2 – is presented, comprehending, besides the hydrological model, the data acquisition, the spatial characterization of the rainfall, the parameters’ calibration and the results’ validation. Due to the relevance of the calibration step, the possibility of using rainfall surfaces interpolated from satellite data, according to the POM technique (Pattern Oriented Interpolation), is explored. In this way, the rainfall data obtained either by the POM technique, prior to 1998, or from satellite, after 1998, is made compatible, thus allowing to lengthen the calibration period. Despite the need for additional research, the paper stresses the advantage of larger calibration periods as a result of the POM spatial interpolation technique.

Keywords: Zambezi River, surface runoff, rainfall interpolation, POM, hydrological model, calibration, validation.

 

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