Revista Recursos Hídricos

DOI:10.5894/rh35n1-3
O texto deste artigo foi submetido para revisão e possível publicação em abril de 2014, tendo sido aceite pela Comissão de Editores Científicos Associados em maio de 2014. Este artigo é parte integrante da Revista Recursos Hídricos, Vol. 35, Nº 1, 37-52, maio de 2014.

Uma forma alternativa de enfrentar a escassez de dados na bacia do rio Zambeze com vista à calibração de modelos hidrológicos

An alternative approach to face the scarcity of data in the Zambezi River basin aiming at calibrating hydrological models

J. P. Matos¹, M. M. Portela², D. Juízo³

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1 - Doutor em Engenharia Civil, Instituto Superior Técnico /// Doutor em Ciências, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne /// jose.matos@ist.utl.pt
2 - Doutora em Engenheira Civil, Professora Auxiliar, Instituto Superior Técnico /// maria.manuela.portela@ist.utl.pt
3 - Doutor em Engenharia Civil, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane /// juizo@uem.mz

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RESUMO
No âmbito da estimação de escoamentos à escala diária numa extensa bacia hidrográfica escassamente monitorizada – na bacia hidrográfica do rio Zambeze, em Moçambique, com cerda de 1 400 000 km2 –, sistematizam-se as etapas fundamentais da modelação, compreendendo, para além do modelo hidrológico propriamente dito, a aquisição dos dados de base, a caracterização espacial da precipitação, a calibração de parâmetros e a validação de resultados. São especificados e brevemente discutidos alguns dos modelos aplicáveis às diferentes etapas. Tendo em conta a relevância da fase de calibração, é explorada a possibilidade de recorrer a superfícies de precipitação interpoladas a partir de dados históricos de acordo com a técnica POM (interpolação por memória orientada por padrões, ou, do Inglês, Pattern Oriented Memory) de modo a aumentar o período de calibração sustentando-o em informação compatível, quer decorrente daquela interpolação, quer, após 1998, derivada de dados de satélite. Não obstante o reconhecimento da necessidade de investigação adicional, o artigo evidencia as potencialidades da adopção de períodos de calibração alargados possibilitada pela nova técnica de interpolação espacial POM.

Palavras-chave: Rio Zambeze, escoamento, interpolação da precipitação, POM, modelo hidrológico, calibração, validação.

ABSTRACT
The main steps of an approach towards the evaluation of flows at a daily time scale in a large ungauged watershed – the Zambezi River basin, in Mozambique, with approx. 1 400 000 km2 – is presented, comprehending, besides the hydrological model, the data acquisition, the spatial characterization of the rainfall, the parameters’ calibration and the results’ validation. Due to the relevance of the calibration step, the possibility of using rainfall surfaces interpolated from satellite data, according to the POM technique (Pattern Oriented Interpolation), is explored. In this way, the rainfall data obtained either by the POM technique, prior to 1998, or from satellite, after 1998, is made compatible, thus allowing to lengthen the calibration period. Despite the need for additional research, the paper stresses the advantage of larger calibration periods as a result of the POM spatial interpolation technique.

Keywords: Zambezi River, surface runoff, rainfall interpolation, POM, hydrological model, calibration, validation.

 

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